TMR · DITRDCA · RES

Quantitative Cost Risk & Contingency

Independent, first-principles, framework-aligned cost-risk modelling. Cenex builds the base estimate bottom-up, models risk with Monte Carlo simulation, and reports contingency at P50 and P90 — to whichever Australian framework your project is funded under.

Three frameworks, one method

The Authority Cluster for Australian Cost-Risk & Contingency

Queensland's TMR mandate, the national RES Contingency Guideline and the Commonwealth's DITRDCA cost-estimation guidance were written by different bodies for different purposes — yet they prescribe the same discipline: a first-principles base estimate, risk modelled probabilistically with Monte Carlo simulation, and contingency reported at P50 and P90.

Cenex doesn't switch methods per client. We apply one rigorous method and report it in each framework's language — backed by 44 Monte Carlo QRA models delivered and an @RISK-based practice. This hub explains the frameworks a TMR or Infrastructure-Australia-funded client expects their estimator to know cold.

P50/P90
Reported Outputs
44
Monte Carlo QRA Models
3
Frameworks Spoken
10K
Simulation Iterations
TMR Queensland · mandatory RES National · best practice DITRDCA Commonwealth · mandatory ONE SHARED METHOD First-principles base estimate + Monte Carlo contingency REPORTED AT P50 / P90

Explore the Risk Hub

Start with why probabilistic risk matters, then dive into each of the three named frameworks government clients and reviewers actually cite — and the page that shows how they converge.

Cenex Expertise

Independent, First-Principles, Framework-Aligned Risk

Cenex's differentiator is independent quantitative cost-risk — not generic risk-register facilitation. We review and challenge the estimate, with no downstream delivery interest. That means contingency is sized to genuine residual risk, so the P90 holds and savings are realised at the P75 / P60 award reset.

What We Deliver as Standard

  • First-principles base estimate: PLMS build-ups, direct / indirect / margin, auditable to a 4-level WBS.
  • Facilitated risk workshop and dollarised risk register: inherent risk on line items plus discrete contingent risk events.
  • Monte Carlo model (@RISK, 5,000–10,000 iterations): with correlation modelled, producing S-curve, histogram and tornado outputs.
  • Contingency reported at P50 and P90: plus P75 for TMR award and P60 for VIC award where relevant.
  • Escalation handled separately: to out-turn cost, using framework-appropriate indices.
  • Reference class forecasting: as an independent benchmark cross-check on the modelled result.
  • Chartered-Engineer sign-off: with re-runnable native model files for the funder's review.

Need a contingency that will survive an independent TMR or Commonwealth review?

See our Risk Modelling & Management service or compare the frameworks side by side in Frameworks Compared.

Which Framework Is Your Project Funded Under?

Tell us — TMR, Commonwealth / DITRDCA, or a state mandate — and we'll build the probabilistic estimate and contingency it requires.

Contact Us Today Risk Modelling Service